41st Canadian federal election

This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election in Canada. Content may change as the election approaches.

41st Canadian general election
Election date:	Writs issued:
On or before October 15, 2012	TBD
Campaign period:	Seats contested:
TBD	308
Incumbent:
Conservative minority
Result:
TBD
Registered parties:
Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party Bloc Québécois Canadian Action Party Christian Heritage Party of Canada Communist Party of Canada Conservative Party of Canada First Peoples National Party Green Party of Canada Liberal Party of Canada Libertarian Party of Canada Marijuana Party of Canada Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada New Democratic Party People's Political Power of Canada Progressive Canadian Party Western Block Party
Elections Canada Website
Canadian general elections

The 41st Canadian federal election is tentatively scheduled for 15 October 2012 under the Canada Elections Act unless the 40th Canadian Parliament is dissolved earlier by the Governor General. Voters will choose members of the Canadian House of Commons for the 41st Canadian Parliament.

It is likely that the election will be called earlier than the scheduled date. The 40th Canadian federal election resulted in a minority government, which rarely last longer than two years in Canada. Furthermore, instability in the government has been exacerbated by the 2008/2009 Canadian parliamentary dispute.

1 Target seats 1.1 Targeted Cabinet ministers 1.2 Opinion Polls 1.3 Projections and predictions

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party in the 2008 election. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 40th Canadian federal election.

Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin as a percentage of the vote over the party whose list the seat is on (not the same as the margin of victory if the party potentially "targeting" the seat in that list did not finish second in the previous election).

Conservative	Liberal
Vancouver South, BC (Lib) 0.05% Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, BC (Lib) 0.12% Brampton West, ON (Lib) 0.43% Welland, ON (NDP) 0.59% Edmonton—Strathcona, AB (NDP) 0.98% Burnaby—Douglas, BC (NDP) 1.69% Brampton—Springdale, ON (Lib) 1.71% Sault Ste. Marie, ON (NDP) 2.71% New Westminster—Coquitlam, BC (NDP) 3.00% Guelph, ON (Lib) 3.04% Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe, NB (Lib) 3.30% Western Arctic, NT (NDP) 3.82% Mississauga South, ON (Lib) 4.64% Eglinton—Lawrence, ON (Lib) 4.74% Malpeque, PE (Lib) 4.91%	Kitchener—Waterloo, ON (Cons) 0.03% Egmont, PE (Con) 0.30% Mississauga—Erindale, ON (Con) 0.71% Oak Ridges—Markham, ON (Cons) 0.72% Kitchener Centre, ON (Cons) 0.75% Ahuntsic, QC (BQ) 0.89% Saint John, NB (Con) 1.43% Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, QC (BQ) 1.93% Brome—Missisquoi, QC (BQ) 2.41% Jeanne-Le Ber, QC (BQ) 2.65% London West, ON (Cons) 3.68% West Nova, NS (Con) 3.79% Gatineau, QC (BQ) 3.83% Saanich—Gulf Islands, BC (Cons) 4.07% Sudbury, ON (NDP) 4.95%
Bloc Québécois	New Democratic
Brossard—La Prairie, QC (Lib) 0.12% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier, QC (Ind) 1.47% Papineau, QC (Lib) 2.78% Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean, QC (Con) 3.89% Beauport—Limoilou, QC (Con) 4.15% Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, QC (Con) 11.93% Jonquière—Alma, QC (Con) 14.98%	Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK (Con) 0.97% South Shore—St. Margaret's, NS (Con) 2.33% St. John's South—Mount Pearl, NL (Lib) 2.76% Gatineau, QC (BQ) 3.03% Surrey North, BC (Con) 3.18% Vancouver Island North, BC (Con) 4.40% Oshawa, ON (Con) 6.64% Parkdale—High Park, ON (Lib) 7.00% Nunavut, NU (Con) 7.28% Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS (Lib) 7.95% Beaches—East York, ON (Lib) 8.84% Palliser, SK (Con) 10.26% Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo, BC (Con) 10.27% Newton—North Delta, BC (Lib) 10.29% Halifax West, NS (Lib) 11.96%
Green
Guelph, ON (Lib) 11.07% Central Nova, NS (Con) 14.36%

The following Cabinet ministers were elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2008:

• Gail Shea, Fisheries and Oceans: 0.3% over Liberal in Egmont, PE
• Denis Lebel, Minister of State (Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec): 3.9% over Bloc in Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean, QC
• Gary Lunn, Natural Resources: 4.7% over Liberal in Saanich—Gulf Islands, BC
• Leona Aglukkaq, Health: 5.4% over Liberal in Nunavut, NU
• Diane Finley, Human Resources and Skills Development: 8.48% over Liberal in Haldimand—Norfolk, ON
• Lawrence Cannon, Foreign Affairs: 8.5% over Liberal in Pontiac, QC
• Peter Kent, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs (Americas): 9.58% over Liberal in Thornhill, ON

Polling Firm	Date of Polling	Link	Conservative	Liberal	New Democratic	Bloc Québécois	Green
COMPAS	December 23, 2008	PDF	43	30	13	6	8
Angus Reid Strategies	December 12, 2008	PDF	37	31	15	9	8
Ipsos Reid	December 11, 2008	HTML	45	26	12	10	7
Angus Reid Strategies	December 6, 2008	PDF	42	22	18	10	7
Praxicus Public Strategies	December 4, 2008	HTML	47	24	14	8	8
COMPAS	December 4, 2008	PDF	51	20	10	8	6
EKOS Research Associates	December 4, 2008	PDF	42.2	23.6	15.0	10.2	9.0
Strategic Counsel	December 3, 2008	PDF	45	24	14	10	8
Ipsos Reid	December 3, 2008	HTML	46	23	13	9	8
EKOS Research Associates	December 3, 2008	PDF	44.0	24.1	14.5	9.2	8.1
Nanos Research	November 15, 2008	PDF	32	30	20	9	10
Election 2008	October 14, 2008	HTML	37.6	26.2	18.2	10.0	6.8

• Trendlines Research Monthly chart tracking of average of recognized Riding Projection models

v â€¢ d â€¢ e   Elections in Canada Most recent Federal 2008 • British Columbia 2005 • Alberta 2008 • Saskatchewan 2007 • Manitoba 2007 • Ontario 2007 • Quebec 2008 • New Brunswick 2006 • Nova Scotia 2006 • Prince Edward Island 2007 • Newfoundland and Labrador 2007 • Yukon 2006 • Northwest Territories 2007 • Nunavut 2008 • Provincial summary Lists Amalgamated timeline • Federal (By-elections) • BC • AB • SK • MB • ON • QC • NB • PEI • NS • NL • YU • NT • NU Electoral districts BC • AB • SK • MB • ON • QC • NB • NS • PEI • NL • YU • NT • NU

v â€¢ d â€¢ e   Canadian federal elections 1867 Â· 1872 Â· 1874 Â· 1878 Â· 1882 Â· 1887 Â· 1891 Â· 1896 Â· 1900 Â· 1904 Â· 1908 Â· 1911 Â· 1917 Â· 1921 Â· 1925 Â· 1926 Â· 1930 Â· 1935 Â· 1940 Â· 1945 Â· 1949 Â· 1953 Â· 1957 Â· 1958 Â· 1962 Â· 1963 Â· 1965 Â· 1968 Â· 1972 Â· 1974 Â· 1979 Â· 1980 Â· 1984 Â· 1988 Â· 1993 Â· 1997 Â· 2000 Â· 2004 Â· 2006 Â· 2008 Â· 41st

Federal political parties | Federal electoral districts | Historical federal electoral districts